The Kawkawlin reaches the bay a half mile down the shore, and the Saginaw River up the way is running 1470 cfs, rising. If you make the run up to the AuSable, it is at 1270 cfs and 67 degrees, on the warm edge. Degree days stand at 923 against a normal of 996, so the season is running about 3 days late. Against the long-term normal, accumulated heat is running ahead by 94 growing degree days. Daylight is 15 hours 13 minutes, shortening about 1.3 minutes a day, and the soil at six inches is 72 degrees, warm enough for morels and the warm-season garden. The next hatch worth waiting for is the Trico, projected around August 11, about 32 days out. Basswood, or linden, is the great midsummer nectar flow: the whole tree hums with bees and makes the surest honey of the year. On the bay, 6 notable birds are being reported, including King Rail and Dunlin.
Correlation: Joe-Pye weed bloom and Saginaw Bay summer calm overlap on the calendar right now. Watch whether they track together as the years bank up.
Tap any dot for the detail and projection.
Water and iceFishHatchesBirdsBloom and colorGarden, zone 6aWildlife
Happening now
American basswood bloomnow
Pale fragrant flowers high in the linden.
Great Lakes seasonal peaknow
Lake Huron near its annual high.
White-tail antlers in velvetnow
New racks growing under velvet.
Common milkweed bloomnow
Pink heads humming with insects.
Fireflies emergenow
First flashes over the damp meadows.
Saginaw Bay summer calmnow
Light winds, warm bay, ideal for boating and surface life.
Next three weeks
Walleye summer lows4 d
Walleye retreat to deep water and cool zones.
Trico hatch5 d
Tiny morning spinners.
Joe-Pye weed bloom5 d
Tall dusky-rose heads in wet ground.
Katydid song begins19 d
The nighttime rasp of late summer.
Just past
Breeding bird peak song10 d ago
Dawn chorus at full volume.
Hexagenia (Hex) hatch5 d ago
The legendary AuSable night hatch.
White-tail fawning11 d ago
Does bearing fawns in the forest.
Connections in play
The signals nature is giving right now, and what each one points to on the rivers, in the woods, and in the garden. 1 is backed by today's readings.
American basswood bloomactive now
Basswood, or linden, is the great midsummer nectar flow: the whole tree hums with bees and makes the surest honey of the year.
White-tail antlers in velvetactive now
Bucks are growing this year's rack in velvet, soft and blood-rich and the fastest-growing bone there is, peaking near the solstice; they hold in low-key bachelor groups until late summer.
Common milkweed bloomactive now
Milkweed in flower is monarch egg-laying peak and the richest nectar of the year.
Fireflies emergeactive now
Fireflies on warm nights run with the Hex on the rivers; high summer is here.
today's reading agrees: water 67°F
Saginaw Bay summer calmactive now
Summer calm waters and light winds are perfect for boating and garden growth, but walleye go deep seeking cool; focus structure and depth.
Joe-Pye weed bloomin about 5 days
Joe-Pye and ironweed mark late summer and feed the first monarchs staging south.
Walleye summer lowsin about 4 days
Summer heat drives walleye deep and inactive; fishing is slow; focus early morning and dusk.
water 67°F, the cue is 70°F or warmer
Katydid song beginsin about 19 days
When the katydids start calling, the old rule puts first frost about ninety days out.
River:the trout water, a trip north
AuSable flowlive
1270cfs
USGS gauge, rising
River waterlive
67deg F
AuSable, USGS
Lake Huron levellive
176.75m IGLD
Saginaw Bay, NOAA
Saginaw Bay windlive
8.9mph
out of the SSW, buoy 45203, 0 ft seas
Hatch and emergence forecast
computed
This season's accumulated heat against known degree-day thresholds, with the aquatic hatches cross-checked against the live AuSable water temperature. Estimates, not promises; emergence shifts with the weather.
Sulphuron now
long evening spinner falls
Isonychiaon now
fast water, much of the summer
Hexagenia limbataon now
the Hex, after dark, the season's biggest
Firefly peakon now
field displays at dusk
Japanese beetleabout 6 days out
adults on roses and lindens
Tricoabout 7 days out
tiny morning spinner falls
Dog-day cicada~4 weeks out
afternoon drone in the canopy
White Fly~4 weeks out
late-summer evening blizzard
Saginaw Bay hatches
The bay's warmwater emergences, keyed to the buoy water temperature. The Hex is the big one, and the walleye and perch feed on all of it.
Fishflies
window open
big clumsy fliers to the dock lights on warm nights
Hexagenia, the giant mayfly
window open
the burrowing mayfly after dark; it piles on the bridges and lights and sends the walleye and perch into a feeding frenzy